Population Data
Beyond the closures mentioned below, two additional schools, McDermid or Imperial, are slated for closure on a separate list of "facility-based" closures, as opposed to "program-based." As with the majority of program-based closures, both of these schools serve neighbourhoods where more than 15 per cent of the population are aboriginal and more than 30 per cent are low income. This additional closure is not expressly mentioned in the board's Renewal Plan, which only highlights the program-based closures.
The colour of closures
In total 18 schools have been targeted for potential closure or merger, with 14 fewer schools as the final outcome.
Looking at the catchment areas for these schools:
14 (78 per cent) include census dissemination areas (neighbourhoods) where the aboriginal population is 15 per cent or more.
3 (16 per cent) include neighbourhoods where the aboriginal population is 9 – 14.9 per cent.
1 (6 per cent) includes neighbourhoods where the aboriginal population is 3.9 – 8.9 per cent.
Zero closures or mergers will occur in school catchment areas where the aboriginal population is uniformly less than 3 per cent.
And…
14 (78 per cent) include neighbourhoods where 30 per cent or more of people live in low income households.
4 (22 per cent) include neighbourhoods where 15 – 29 per cent of people live in low income households.
Zero closures or mergers will occur in catchment areas where the low income incidence is uniformly less than 15 per cent.
Related facts...
Beween 1996 and 2006 Regina's aboriginal population increased by 25 per cent.
Demographic suggest this trend will continue. In 2006, 36 per cent of aboriginal people were in the 18-34 age group, compared to 29 per cent of non-aboriginal people.
Figures compiled by Sask Tends Monitor.
Aboriginal data: 2006 census. Income data: 2001 census.
Closures and catchment areas
The divisions on this map represent cachment areas. Those in yellow are affected by elementary closures. Note that each cachement area generally includes more than one of the census tracts in the maps below. Please reference this map when examining the census maps. The census map also includes the two highschools.
Closures and aboriginal population
Map created by SaskTrends Monitor.
Closures and low income households
Map created by SaskTrends Monitor
Enrolment Case Study: Connaught and Davin
At the feedback meetings held by the school board, questions have often been raised regarding the accuracy of the population trends presented by the board. The board uses a software developed by Baragar Demographics. The software has to be front-loaded with data before it can produce the type of projections the Board uses in their 10-year plan.
There are legitimate concerns over the accuracy of the projections the School Board has accumulated from their use of the Baragar software.
Larry Elliott, an independant citizen and retired statistician not explicity affiliated with RealRenewal, has offered the following information regarding population data:
Recently released data from the 2006 Census suggests that the school age population in the natural attendance areas for Connaught and Davin schools might actually be rising rather than falling.
Two Census Tracts match almost exactly with the areas in question.
CT 7050004.00 - Between the CPR Mainline and the Creek, west of Elphinstone.
CT 7050012.00 - Between the CPR Mainline and the Creek, between Elphinstone and Albert.
The Davin attendance area probably also includes at least part of CT 7050011.00 (Transition Area).
Since I don't have appropriate data from the 1996 or 2001 Census, I will use the City of Regina Planning Department Neighbourhood Profiles for Cathedral, which are built from Census data, and which happen to
coincide exactly with CT 7050004.00 and CT 7050012.00
| Age Grp | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 est | 2016 est |
| 0-4 | 426 | 340 | 380 | 400 | |
| 5-9 | 426 | 365 | 325 | 380 | 400 |
| 10-14 | 369 | 430 | 360 | 325 | 380 |
| 15-19 | 433 | 410 | 430 | 360 | |
| 20-24 | 585 | 605 | 565 | ||
| 25-29 | 687 | 625 | 690 | ||
| 30-34 | 776 | 575 | 580 | ||
| 35-39 | 687 | 690 | 490 | ||
| 40-44 | 655 | 610 | 610 | ||
| 45-49 | 483 | 605 | 570 | ||
| 50-54 | 312 | 440 | 545 | ||
| 55-59 | 223 | 320 | 445 | ||
| 60-64 | 210 | 245 | 245 | ||
| 65-74 | 407 | 370 | 345 | ||
| 75+ | 445 | 470 | 420 | ||
Population forecasts, especially for a small area or group is extremely tricky. It requires many assumptions about what is reasonable, and then those assumptions must be rigorously and accurately applied.
The estimated numbers for 2011 and 2016 in the above table were produced with the simplest possible of assumptions. The estimated Age 0-4 for 2011 was simply a guess that the most recent trend would continue but at a lower rate. The estimated Age 5-9 and 10-14 numbers for 2011 and 2016 simply assumed that all the children would move up to the next age group.
Assuming that Connaught and Davin are affected by the children in the 5-14 age range, we get the following Cathedral area population numbers
1996 = 795
2001 = 795
2006 = 686
2011 = 705
2015 = 780
We might conclude that 2006 represented a low point and that student populations are going to recover. At the very least, there should be no irreversible action
that would permanently reduce the capacity of the system to accommodate elementary school children in the Cathedral area.